Every staking system – Flat, Martingale, Fibonacci, or Percentage of Bankroll – behaves very differently depending on the actual sequence of wins and losses it encounters. Reading about a system is one thing; watching it run against real results is another entirely.
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The Staking Plan Simulator takes a bankroll, a base stake, fixed odds, and a chosen staking plan, then runs it round-by-round against any win/loss sequence you enter.
This turns abstract staking theory into a concrete bankroll trajectory, showing exactly how a plan would have performed against a specific run of results – good or bad.
π How to Use the Staking Plan Simulator
Enter your starting bankroll, a base stake amount, and the fixed decimal odds you’re assuming for every bet in the sequence.
This simulator assumes the same fixed odds for every round – real betting involves varying odds, so treat the output as an illustrative model rather than an exact prediction.
Choose a staking plan, then enter your win/loss sequence as a comma-separated list of W and L. The simulator returns your final bankroll, peak, max drawdown, and a full round-by-round table.
π’ Calculator Fields Explained
Starting Bankroll – the amount you begin the simulation with.
Base Stake – the starting stake size used by Flat, Martingale, and Fibonacci plans.
Odds (Decimal) – the fixed decimal odds assumed for every bet in the simulated sequence.
Staking Plan – the system being tested: Flat, Martingale, Fibonacci, or Percentage of Bankroll.
Percentage of Bankroll (%) – the fixed share of current bankroll staked each round, shown only for that plan.
Results Sequence – a comma-separated list of W (win) and L (loss) representing the order of bet outcomes to simulate.
π° Understanding the Results
| Result Field | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Final Bankroll | The bankroll remaining after simulating every round in the results sequence |
| Peak Bankroll | The highest bankroll value reached at any point during the simulation |
| Max Drawdown | The largest percentage decline from a peak to a subsequent low point |
| Round-by-Round Table | Stake size, result, and running bankroll for every individual round simulated |
Two staking plans can produce wildly different final bankrolls from the identical sequence of wins and losses, since each plan reacts differently to streaks in either direction.
Martingale and Fibonacci plans can produce very large stakes during extended losing streaks – always check the round-by-round table for any stake that grows uncomfortably large.
The same exact win/loss sequence can bankrupt one staking plan while leaving another comfortably profitable. The sequence alone doesn’t determine the outcome – the staking plan chosen matters just as much.
π Calculation Formulas
Each staking plan determines its stake size differently, though all plans convert that stake into profit or loss using the same fixed-odds payout logic.
| Plan | Stake Formula | Behavior After a Loss |
|---|---|---|
| Flat | Base Stake (constant) | Unchanged |
| Martingale | Base Stake Γ 2^(loss streak) | Doubles |
| Fibonacci | Base Stake Γ Fibonacci(loss streak) | Increases along Fibonacci sequence |
| Percentage of Bankroll | Current Bankroll Γ Percentage | Shrinks as bankroll falls |
Percentage of Bankroll staking is the only plan among these four where the stake naturally shrinks during a losing streak, since it’s always recalculated from the current, smaller bankroll.
This is precisely why Martingale and Fibonacci carry far greater risk of rapid bankroll depletion – both increase stake size specifically during losing streaks, the opposite of the Percentage plan’s behavior.
π Practical Examples
Example 1 (Flat): A Β£1,000 bankroll with a Β£20 base stake and 2.0 decimal odds runs the sequence W,L,L,W,L,W,W,L,L,W under Flat staking. Each round stakes exactly Β£20, producing a modest, steady bankroll change.
Example 2 (Martingale): The identical sequence under Martingale staking sees the stake double after every loss – two consecutive losses (rounds 2-3) push the stake from Β£20 to Β£40 to Β£80, dramatically amplifying the effect of that losing streak.
Running the exact same results sequence through different staking plans is the clearest way to see how much staking strategy – not just win rate – drives final bankroll outcomes.
Example 3 (Percentage of Bankroll): The same sequence under a 2% Percentage of Bankroll plan stakes Β£20 initially, but that stake shrinks automatically after losses since it’s recalculated from a smaller bankroll each round.
A losing streak that would bankrupt a Martingale plan often barely dents a Percentage of Bankroll plan running the same sequence. Stake sizing behavior under losses is the single biggest driver of long-run survival.
π‘ Tips & Best Practices
Test the same results sequence across all four staking plans to directly compare how each one handles identical winning and losing streaks.
Pay close attention to the round-by-round table during long losing streaks, since this is where staking plans differ most dramatically in stake size and risk.
Use realistic, varied win/loss sequences rather than only testing favorable patterns, since real betting results rarely arrive in a convenient order.
- Try entering a long losing streak (e.g. six or more L’s in a row) to stress-test a plan
- Compare max drawdown figures across plans, not just final bankroll
Treat this simulator as an educational tool for understanding staking behavior, not as a forecast of future betting results.
Stress-testing a staking plan against a deliberately harsh losing streak reveals its true risk profile far better than a lucky sequence would.
Remember that this simulator assumes fixed odds throughout – real betting involves varying odds that would change each round’s actual payout.
β οΈ Common Mistakes to Avoid
Testing Only Favorable Sequences
Entering a results sequence with mostly wins doesn’t reveal how a staking plan behaves under real adverse conditions.
Testing a staking plan only against favorable sequences hides the exact risk that plan carries during a genuine losing streak.
Skipping harsh losing-streak scenarios is the most common mistake when evaluating a staking system’s true risk. Always include a deliberately tough sequence in your testing.
Assuming Fixed Odds Reflect Real Betting
Real bets rarely all occur at the exact same odds, so treating this simulation’s output as a precise real-world forecast overstates its predictive power.
This simulator’s fixed-odds assumption makes it an illustrative model, not an exact prediction of real-world staking plan performance.
Use it to understand relative behavior between plans, rather than as a literal forecast of future bankroll levels.
Ignoring Max Drawdown in Favor of Final Bankroll Alone
A plan can end with a similar final bankroll to another while having passed through a far more severe drawdown along the way.
Setting an Unrealistically High Base Stake or Percentage
Testing with a base stake or percentage that’s too large relative to the bankroll can produce misleadingly dramatic results not representative of realistic staking.
π― When to Use This Calculator
Use this calculator when comparing staking systems before committing to one, or when stress-testing an existing plan against a challenging hypothetical losing streak.
Watching a staking plan’s bankroll trajectory unfold round by round teaches more about its real risk profile than any written description alone.
It’s especially useful for newer bettors deciding between aggressive progressive systems and more conservative flat or percentage-based approaches.
π Related Calculators
Martingale Calculator, Fibonacci Calculator, Labouchere Calculator, Kelly Criterion Calculator, Drawdown Calculator.
π Glossary
Staking Plan – a predefined system for sizing bets across a betting strategy.
Flat Staking – a plan where every stake remains the same fixed amount regardless of results.
Martingale – a progressive staking system that doubles the stake after every loss.
Fibonacci Staking – a progressive system that increases stakes following the Fibonacci sequence after losses.
Percentage of Bankroll – a staking plan where each stake is a fixed percentage of the current bankroll.
Drawdown – the peak-to-trough decline in a bankroll’s value over a given period.
Loss Streak – a consecutive sequence of losing bets.
Bankroll – the total funds set aside for betting activity.
Fixed Odds – odds that are locked in at the time a bet is placed.
Progressive Staking – any system where stake size changes based on previous results.
β Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Martingale look so risky in the round-by-round table?
Because it doubles the stake after every single loss, a long losing streak can escalate stake size extremely quickly, even from a modest base stake.
This is the core criticism of Martingale-style systems: a bad enough streak, even if statistically expected occasionally, can wipe out a bankroll rapidly.
Which staking plan is “best”?
There’s no universally “best” staking plan – each involves a different trade-off between growth potential and risk of ruin during losing streaks.
Flat and Percentage of Bankroll plans are generally considered lower-risk, while Martingale and Fibonacci trade higher risk for faster recovery from losses when they work.
The right choice depends on personal risk tolerance and bankroll size relative to the base stake being used.
Can I test a real sequence of my own past results?
Yes, simply enter your actual historical W/L sequence into the Results Sequence field to see how different staking plans would have performed against it.
Running your own real betting history through multiple staking plans is one of the most useful ways to use this tool. It shows what could have happened under a different staking approach to the same outcomes.
Does the simulator account for a maximum stake or table limit?
No, it applies the staking formula without any cap beyond the current bankroll itself – real-world betting often includes provider-imposed maximum stake limits this tool doesn’t model.
Keep this in mind especially when testing Martingale or Fibonacci plans against long losing streaks, since real accounts may hit a stake ceiling before this simulator would.
Why does the stake shrink under Percentage of Bankroll during a losing streak?
Because each round’s stake is recalculated as a percentage of the current, already-reduced bankroll, rather than a percentage of the original starting amount.
This self-correcting behavior is exactly why Percentage of Bankroll staking is generally considered more resistant to bankroll depletion than fixed-progression systems.
βοΈ Legal Disclaimer
This calculator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice, and results are estimates based on the figures entered. Gambling involves risk, and past performance or calculated odds do not guarantee future outcomes. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
